Amazing news! Unfortunately, if this comes to Brazil and 8tb SSD would be the price of a car
More density means less longevity, less write cycles before the blocks wear out, also decreases the time before Nand leakage can end up corrupting the data. Doesn’t seem like a good thing to me.
Oh yeah, also more storage space causes complacency with developers who will terribly optimize their games because they don’t have to worry about games not fitting on people’s disks. Think 100GB games is bad it’ll get much worse when they got more free space at their disposal, and worse, the perception that their customers have tons of free space as well.
For the first part, as long as it isn’t too bad and it gets detected, and has methods for mitigating damage from losses, that’s fine. If you get a lot more capacity but lose some over time, you still have more capacity.
For the latter, yeah it does but do they even care now? Personally, I don’t play any games that large really anyway, so it doesn’t effect me. Let them lose you as a customer too if that’s an issue and they surpass how much you’ll put up with.
are HDDs finally dying?
Not yet, unless the higher capacity comes at a much lower price. HDDs are fine for the price currently
Not when 20TB drives are becoming cheaper :)
nar. HDDs don’t require power to maintain their state. So that’s an advantage they’ll always have over SSDs, which means there will be use-cases where HDDs are the better choice.
SSDs can reliably hold charge states for years, and there are storage media that are more reliable than HDD.
HDD’s would still find a niche, probably, as a balanced option, but said niche will likely get smaller and smaller over many years.
It will probably be a choice of quieter, faster, expensive vs loud, high capacity, pretty cheap.
Unless we start with 3.5" SSDs (pls), HDDs will always be storage kings.
Imagine 3.5" SSDs with 3-4 layer sandwiched PCBs…And inexpensive NAND…Why is 3.5" preferable? You can always use a 2.5" to 3.5" adapter, and even 2.5" casing is mostly empty anyway
More volume for more NAND-PCBs
and even 2.5" casing is mostly empty anyway
Does this count for the higher capacity drives (e.g. >2TB)? Preferably TLC?
HDDs will probably always be useful for media storage, where quick access time isn’t required and it isn’t being used constantly. They should die for PCs though.
Excellent, I needed more space for cookies, malware and games that suddenly require 500GB of free space. I’ll have that thing full in no time.
Just don’t play the AAA slop and the file sizes are a lot better.
And soon enough we’ll see 1tb games once storage is plenty.
Yet apple will still charge $200 for 128gb
Soon the new COD will weigh 5TB
COD will ship as a 5TB HDD cartridge :D
We will go back to the cartridge bay days.A 3.5" cartridge slot with a hard drive reader in it sounds kinda awesome, not gonna lie.
The prices will stay the same. Manufacturers will just make more profit.
Is that what has happened to the storage market historically?
Not at all. The price of storage has plummeted so much that most video games comfortably use ~100GB for large games and don’t care because even SSD storage is extremely cheap.
If you don’t believe me, here’s a post on Reddit that shows it off pretty well.
I’m not exactly sure what that chart is using for data sources. Historically every couple of years I’ve bought whatever goes on sale for around $200 and added it to my unraid.
I was able to pick up exos 14s a couple of years ago. And they’re still not back down to $200.
It looks like it depends on the drive size but also I think the pandemic has leveled this out in recent years. Some additional data I found by BackBlaze shows a bit more of the story though they have changed their drive sizes which leads to a more interesting graph.
There’s two ways to take that statement. The price of a hard drive will remain the same, or the price per memory unit will remain the same. Price per hard drive remains largely the same. Price per unit of memory drops.
The only exception here is SSDs are slowly dropping in price to meet magnetic disk drives.
Interpreted the other way, I don’t think that makes sense because on the whole storage has always gotten cheaper with time. Hard drives may cost the same, but they’re larger capacity so really this would only work as an argument if hard drive storage space stayed the same and prices remained the same for consumers but went down for manufacturers.
Also there’s a lot of competition in the space similar to other chips so I don’t see how a company making NAND or platters can afford to sit on their hands like that. The whole point of drive innovation right now is to drive the price per GB down for B2B sales. And that usually translates well to consumer sales too.
That’s business logic. Consumer logic is that when things get cheaper they should actually be cheaper.
They do get cheaper but the cheaper ones don’t get made because they aren’t worth anything anymore. Like sure you can get a 500GB HDD which used to be a moderately priced option and is now basically trash or free. The prices go down, but the key is that consumers no longer want the old thing either.
Honestly, nowadays a 100Gb game is small. Games are easily 200+ for the AAA section.
Yeah, but modern consoles come with as little as 512 gigs of storage.
I’m optimistic. I’m making numbers out of my butt because I literally can’t remember.
But I think My 20GB SSD from 2010 was about $100. I used to dualboot.
Today, I can get a 512GB SSD for $50.
Today, I can get a 512GB SSD for $50.
Maybe 2.5" but not 2280
Same SSDs are about 40% more expensive today than they were this time last year.
SSDs were relatively new in 2010, and priced accordingly. Now it’s just about increasing sizes and (hopefully) reliability. I just don’t think that all of a sudden we’ll have huge cheap SSDs - people are used to a certain price point and manufacturers will take advantage of that.
I got a 1TB SSD for 55€, so about 60 something dollars. Prices are certainly dropping
Yup.
I’m sure we will get some “random” fire at some factory to drive prices up again.
And Apple will finally sell the iPhone starting with 256GB
Technically the Pro Max already starts at 256 GB (starting with the 15 series iirc). But they simply removed the 128 GB option from the price stack.
What do you need 256gb for? You don’t seriously store photos and videos on your phone… as the only place?
Yeah, I don’t get this. I still haven’t used more than ~115GB in years that I’ve been on iPhone. All my photos are in RAW (since supported) and I’ve got a huge lossless (or better) music library.
Granted I don’t have 100% of everything on my phone all the time, but even my iCloud storage is pretty low.
I guess since I have Apple Music I don’t have very much on my phone at any one time.
Most of my heavy usage are my Virtual Machines. But really, those don’t all have to be on at once. Am I really using windows that often?
My 100GB music library leaves less space than I’d like on a 128GB phone.
that’s what expandable storage (i.e. sd card) is for.
oh your phone does not know what that is?
You really listen to that much music that often? I assume that’s compressed as well, because I don’t think there’s a point to high-bitrate media when you’re going to play it through phone speakers or Bluetooth.
Personally I just use plain old FM radio in my car, a couple dozen songs on my workout playlist for the gym, and YouTube streams for work.
that’s what expandable storage (i.e. sd card) is for.
oh your phone does not know what that is?
My girlfriend learned that lesson the hard way. We now have a nas and off-site storage.
Fuck yeah! I NAS swap with a friend. I have my house NAS which syncs to my other one at his place and he does the same. (4 total)
just in time for GTA6 to come out and be 3TB in size
I wouldn’t even mind tbh.
250GB tops or it will be bs.
GTA5 already had about 90-110GB of raw gamedata. I think right now it’s 150GB.Except it would take 3 literal months to download it (stupid home internet with a 1.25TB data cap)
Goodness, do you live in Australia or something? Are there any better options, or can you not afford them? My spoiled and priveleged self has trouble comprehending a data cap on my internet plan.
It’s Comcastic!
United States. They have data caps because
their backbone isn’t powerful enough for 2gbps home internetthey prefer to offer more value to customersYou forgot “and they’re greedy fuck pigs”
well, that’s a given
And if you go to the store and buy it in person, it’ll be a empty cd case with a serial key to download.
or with a CD that installs a downloader, that is actually a background service always starting with the OS, and a few other bloatware to not waste CD space
except that almost nobody has a CD drive anymore. so it must be a pendrive instead that was forced to read-only access
Ah shit. That would suck. Personally I could start the download and have the game the next day. Which is roughly what it took to torrent a 4 GiB game back in the day if there weren’t enough seeds.
That’s likely the point where spinning platters die in the marketplace.
Right now, spinning platters are around $12/tb. SSDs are around $75. Exact numbers fluctuate with features and market changes, but those are the ballpark. Cut in half, SSDs will be $38/tb, and then $19 in the next halving. Spinning platters aren’t likely to see the same level of reduction in that time period; they’re a mature technology.
I think once they reach double the price per tb, we’ll see a major collapse of the hard drive market. My thinking is that there’s a lot of four drive RAID 10 systems out there. With SSDs, those can be two drive RAID 1, and will still be faster. With half the drives, they can be twice the price and work out the same.
Spinning platters are already dead in many ways because even though they’ve increased in capacity, they haven’t meanigfully changed read/write speeds in decades, which makes moving the ever increasing data a huge pain.
Most hardrives live in servers, as part of storage volumes where IO can be optimised well beyond the capability of a single disk.
For the boot disk on my workstation I am absolutely using an SSD, but for the hundreds of terabytes of largely static data that I need to keep archived? Spinning disks all the way. Not only to SSDs need to match on price, but they also have a long way to come in terms of longevity.
- The R/W cycles are infinite. At least until the head error out.
This is it. Yes, spinning HDDs may be cheaper, but replacing mine with an SSD made my PC faster and quieter, especially on boot.
Not really relevant, but I just moved 150ish GB between SSDs in a few minutes, less than 5 for sure. As a teenager such an operation (moving 3 games between drives) would have taken an hour. As a kid I’d be furiously changing floppy drives all day.
I just thought that was an interesting thought.
“Could”
I’m already avoiding buying newer SSDs because the durability is dropping off a cliff.
I’m really scared of them cramming more and more bits in the same cell. Every time they double that number it’s got to be cutting the write longevity in half. Unless they’ve got some other thing they can do to increase that.
TLC or bust for me.
I’d only consider QLC for low write high read situations like a NAS that serves as media storage.
32 level “PLC” cells, OMG. How about staying at levels with some durability.
Good news but it’ll be a while before I can replace the 20TB drives in my NAS with these.
It’s looking like 2029 will be the turning point. Right now, we are on the verge of having 16tb m.2s on the market, and by 2029 SSDs will be around $10-15/TB like HDDs are now.
In 2029, if semiconductor trends continue, it is likely that we will have 16TB SSDs for ~$200 and 32TB SSDs for ~$500; Cheaper than the $320 we’re paying for 20TB HDDs right now.
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ssds/16tb-m2-ssds-will-soon-grace-the-market
The HDD industry doesn’t seem like it will improve at the same rate. It is likely that the SSD market will have better $/TB than the HDD market in 2029, unless hard drives make some massive breakthrough before then. The survival of the HDD industry past the next 5 years is basically riding on Seagate’s ability to successfully release HAMR technology.
While I fully agree with the SSD side, you seem to ignore that HDDs are also getting cheaper per TB (always have, and usually quite noticeably). Also the reliability of large to huge SSDs remains to be seen as well. Obviously a breakthrough in HDD technology would have an influence as well, as you mentioned.
I’m not saying SSDs aren’t here to take over, they surely will eventually (preferably sooner), but I think it’ll be a few more years until we got actual price parity per TB. Even when ignoring other aspects like reliability.
You can’t really reliably use consumer SSDs in a server/NAS situation though, unless you more prepared to replace them every 12-24 months and suffer poor read/write speeds under load
SSDs last longer than hard drives in most situations.
What do you mean poor speeds under load?
You would replace your NAS drives with SSDs?
Im not super experienced with NAS and only started home networking like three years ago. but I read SSDs would die quicker than traditional disks.
I’m not sure although it’s mostly used for media storage so there aren’t a lot of write operations. Having said that I do have solid state M2 drives in there for caching with no issues so far.
